An infusion-rate calculation looks like arithmetic on a worksheet — total volume divided by total time — and most of the time it is. The trap is the three silent-failure modes that hide behind the simple formula: wrong pump units, wrong bag contents, and wrong duration interpretation.
A kanban board is a queue with a calendar. The percentiles, CFD reading rules, and Little's Law consistency check tell you whether the team is shipping or stalling.
A 1/4 affected risk on every pregnancy is the headline number, but the pedigree probability tree is what gets you there. This field guide walks through the seven decisions the tree hides, the three formulas that cover most counseling conversations, and the two arithmetic slips that quietly turn a 25% answer into a 50% one.